According to exit poll data released by Lokniti-CSDS on Wednesday morning, the Bharatiya Janata Party is set for a big win in Uttar Pradesh and the Aam Aadmi Party will romp to victory over the ruling Congress in Punjab. The Lokniti exit poll also predicts victory for the BJP in Goa and Uttarakhand, although it warns of a tight race in the latter state.
The Lokniti poll findings echo those by India Today-Axis My India, Times Now-Veto, Republic P-Marq, ABP-CVoter, and News24. All of these polls have predicted that the BJP will win Uttar Pradesh and Manipur as well as Punjab to the AAP. They also predict a close fight in Goa.
According to the Lokniti-CSDS exit poll, BJP will secure around 43 per cent of the voteshare (sample size of around 7,000), with Samajwadi Party grabbing around 35 per cent.
The Congress and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party will share 3% of the vote, with 15% going to smaller parties and independent candidates.
The election was held against the backdrop of popular resentment against the ruling party, farmers’ protests, and Lakhimpur Kheri deaths. Rising prices and unemployment were also factors contributing to this election.
The Samajwadi Party hopes to capitalise on the exit polls which suggest that UP voters remain firmly in the BJP’s camp. This is significant because the state is central to the BJP’s bid for an unprecedented third successive Lok Sabha win in 2024.
UP sends the most members of parliament to the Lok Sabha – eighty.
Meanwhile, in Punjab, Lokiniti-CSDS predicts that the Aam Aadmi Party will win the election. The party seems to have capitalized on infighting within the Congress and a lack of serious alternatives for voters to register its first win outside Delhi.
AAP’s Lokniti gives the party 40% of the vote share, with Congress’ Lokniti shrinking to 26% from 38.5%.
The Akalis will get 20% of the vote, with the BJP and others coming in at an estimated 7%. There is a 4% margin of error.
The exit polls all predict that the AAP will win, with the Congress and Akalis likely to battle it out for second place.
The BJP is projected to get 32 percent of the vote in Goa, while the Congress is expected to receive 29 percent. This margin of error means that there’s a 6 percent chance that the two parties will actually end up with different percentages of votes.
In Uttarakhand, the BJP is expected to win by a margin of 43% to 38%. This indicates that the BJP is set to return to power in Uttarakhand. The margin of error for this result is only 3%, meaning that the BJP should win easily.
The counting of votes for all five elections will begin at 8 am tomorrow.
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