Is Covid-19 4th wave Dangerous or not, know details here

Although the number of new coronavirus cases is declining rapidly, a recent study has warned that the Covid-19 4th wave may set in around June 22 in the country.

The study, conducted by Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT-K) researchers, predicted that India will likely witness the fourth covid-19 wave in mid to late June, and the surge will continue for about 4 months.

Although top health experts suggest that the fourth wave of Covid-19 may not be as severe as the previous ones, the severity of the fourth wave will depend on the emergence of new variants, vaccination status, and administration of booster doses. ALSO READ Aadhaar card not mandatory for CoWIN portal registration

Health experts believe that the fast-paced mass vaccination program in the country and increasing awareness will make it easier to deal with the upcoming wave of the Covid-19.

According to the Union Health Ministry, as of Tuesday, more than 177.67 crore COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the country. The Ministry also said that more than 2 crore precaution doses have been given to healthcare and frontline workers and comorbid people aged 60 and above.

The countrywide vaccination drive for COVID-19 began on January 16 last year with healthcare workers getting inoculated in the first phase. Inoculation of frontline workers started on February 2. The next phase of COVID-19 vaccination commenced from March 1 for people over 60 years of age and those aged 45 and above with specified co-morbid conditions.

The government has announced that it will be expanding its vaccination drive to allow everyone above 18 to be vaccinated, starting from May 1. ALSO READ  A nasal vaccine made by Bharat Biotech could be a game-changer if it provides mucosal immunity: AIIMS Doctor

The next phase of COVID-19 vaccination commenced from January 10 for adolescents in the age group of 15-18 years. India began administering precaution dose of COVID-19 vaccine to healthcare and frontline workers and those aged 60 and above with comorbidities from January 3.

Is India likely to witness the 4th COVID wave?  

The scientists predict that the fourth wave of COVID-19 in India will arrive approximately 936 days after the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020.

Covid-19 4th wave will start on June 22, 2022, and reach its peak on August 23, 2022. The wave will end on October 24, 2022.

The next variant’s arrival will deeply impact how and when the entire analysis is conducted.

The new COVID model was designed using a mixture of Gaussian distribution based on the data on Zimbabwe. However, the researchers noted that there is always a fair chance that a possible new variant of coronavirus may have a more intense impact on the whole analysis.

What do the IIT researchers say?

The study, which was conducted by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh from the Mathematics department at IIT Kanpur, used a mixture of Gaussian distribution based on data from Zimbabwe. The study has been published as a pre-print on MedRxiv, and has yet to be peer-reviewed.

The researchers say that the data suggests that the fourth wave of Covid-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020.

The fourth wave starts on June 22, 2022 and peaks on August 23, 2022, according to the researchers. The 99% confidence interval for the date when the curve will reach the peak is from August 15, 2022 to August 31, 2022. Covaxin is now a universal vaccine against Covid-19 for adults and children: Bharat Biotech

How severe will be Covid-19 4th wave? 

There is a good chance that a new variant of coronavirus may emerge and have a significant impact on the whole analysis, according to the study. The authors said that the intensity of the impact will depend on various factors like infectibility, fatality etc. They also highlighted that the effect of vaccinations – first, second or booster dosage – can play a significant role in the possibility of infection.

The fourth wave of Covid-19 may not have the same impact as the earlier waves, but it is still important to prepare for it. Make sure you stock up on supplies and follow the guidelines from your local government.