Oxford Economics slashes India’s 2021 GDP growth estimate to 10.2%

The global forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Monday revised its estimate of India’s GDP growth to 10.2 percent from 2021, which was already 11.8 percent, indicating the country’s growing health burden of immunization. There is a lack of a solid government strategy to reduce the rate and prevent the epidemic.

Oxford Economics also said that despite the prospect of further mobility restrictions, it expects India’s targeted lockdown approach, less stringent restrictions, and flexible consumer and business behavior to mitigate the economic impact of the second wave.
It added, “India’s rising health burden, staggering vaccination rates, and the lack of a sound government strategy to curb the epidemic have reduced our 2021 GDP growth forecast from 11.8 percent to 10.2 percent. is.”

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The global forecasting firm said it expects GDP to contract sequentially in the second quarter.

“But if struggling health systems force more states to resort to stricter lockouts like Maharashtra, we will further reduce our growth forecasts,” he said.
Oxford Economics said India’s health system has fallen in the worst-hit states, even as the national capital Delhi faces a severe shortage of oxygen and COVID-19 hospital beds.

“While the official death rate has come down, it increases the number of deaths rapidly rising. Deaths are now doubling every ten days (as opposed to an average of 29 days in the first wave) and even this figure is delayed. Is likely to be suppressed at or below – export of mortals. It noted.
India is battling a second wave of epidemics in the last few days with more than 300,000 new coronovirus cases, and hospitals in many states are suffering from medical oxygen and bed shortages.

The IMF has projected an impressive rate of 12.5 percent for India in 2021, while S&P Global Ratings has stated that the Indian economy is projected to grow 11 percent in the current financial year.

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In its final policy review, RBI had projected GDP growth rate of 10.5 percent for FY’22. According to the Statistics Office of India, the economy is projected to contract 8 percent in 2020-21 while the Economic Survey 2020-21 has seen 11 percent growth in 2021-22.

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