Indian markets were volatile during the week, partly due to a lockout in various parts of the country as well as a fall in the rupee against the USD and an increase in COVID-19 cases due to selling by foreign institutional investors.
The S&P BSE Sensex fell 1.5 percent, while the Nifty 50 S&P BSE Midcap index was down 1.4 percent for the week ended April 16, down 2.9 percent, and the S & BSE Smallcap index fell 2.6 percent over the same period.
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The S&P BSE 500 index has as many as 13 stocks that fell more than 13 percent for the week ended April 16, including Bandhan Bank, NBCC, India Cements, RBL Bank, Quess Corp and Lemon Tree.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) closed net sellers so far in April and pulled out about Rs 2,600 crore from the cash segment of the Indian equity markets.
“During the beginning of the week, Indian markets faced volatility with the VIX gaining 16.22 percent, while the US continued to hit fresh lifetimes. Unlike in the past, FPIs have deviated from their normal buying behavior and have changed net sellers so far this month, as India struggles to cope with the increasing pace of transitions, ”Nirali Shah, Head – Equity Research, SAMCO Securities.
“Nevertheless, it is expected that once the vaccination campaign is fully started, things should come back under control. Investors are advised to see the improvement as an opportunity to reorganize their portfolio and invest in quality companies, ”said Shah.
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Realty, Steps in IT Sector
In terms of sectors, S&P BSE Realty declined nearly 6 percent after IT, down 4.4 percent for the week ended 16 February.
Various states started partial lockdowns, prompting investors to book profits or withdraw money from the small and midcap as well as realty sector, experts suggest.
“The anxiety over the second wave of COVID-19 has dampened sentiments as the sector was still ready for the newborn. This has resulted in some more pressure on realty stocks, ”Mehul Kothari, AVP – technical research at Aanandarthi.
The S&P BSE IT index fell more than 4 percent in a week, largely due to profit booking after the announcement of recent results.
“IT shares saw profit booking after the results were announced. Some realizations are happening in the IT sector, in which stocks such as TCS and Infosys, which are considered to be quite valuable, are taking advantage.
“Wipro is seeing ratings again on better-than-expected earnings. The way investors have reacted to major IT stocks, we can expect booking profits in other major companies that are coming up with results and where valuations are rich or fully valued, ”said Ojha .
Technical outlook
The Nifty 50 closed below the 50-day moving average ended on April 16, which suggests that fluctuations are likely to continue, but the bulls are giving a tough fight to the bear.
The Nifty 50 created a swing low of 14,248 on 12 April, which will serve as an important support level to track in the coming week as well. At higher levels, there will be 14,800–15,000 critical resistance levels.
“Market perception” is becoming cautiously optimistic and the best strategy is to “buy at dips”. In the coming week, the market should trade between the range of 14450-14850 on the Nifty, ”Shrikant Chauhan, Executive Vice President (Equity Technical Research), Kotak Securities.
“Above the 14,850 level, short-covering may come which can lift the market to the level of 15,000–15,150. HDFC Bank’s quarterly numbers will determine the bank-Nifty trend. Chauhan said that he should be graded between 32,600 and 31,400.
Chauhan said that FIIs were selling for Rs 1,500 crore during the week due to the extraordinary weakness of the Indian rupee. We expect price-buying in financial and commodities stocks to emerge in the coming weeks.
