‘Third wave of Covid-19 expected to hit India by October’: Experts

After conducting an instant survey of health specialists, doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists, and professors worldwide, experts claimed that the third wave of Covid would hit India by October.

New Delhi: A third wave of coronavirus infections is expected to hit India by October, according to a Reuters poll of medical experts, and although it is better controlled than the previous epidemic, the pandemic will remain a threat to public health for at least another year.

The instantaneous survey from June 3 to 17 of 40 health specialists, doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists and professors around the world found that there had been a significant increase in vaccinations, which will likely provide some coverage. for a new epidemic.

More than 85% of those polled, or 21 out of 24, predicted the next wave would arrive in October, with three predicting it in August and 12 in September. The other three said it was between November and February.

However, more than 70% of experts, or 24 out of 34, believe any new outbreak would be better controlled than the current one, which has been far more devastating – with shortages of vaccines, drugs, oxygen and bedding. ‘hospitals – than a first wave of infections weaker last year.

“It will be more controlled, as the cases will be much fewer as more vaccinations would have been rolled out and there would be some degree of natural second wave immunity,” said Dr. Randeep Guleria, director of All India Institute of Medical Sciences. (AIIMS).

So far, India has only vaccinated around 5% of its estimated eligible population of 950 million, leaving several million people vulnerable to infections and death.

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While the majority of health experts have predicted the vaccination campaign will resume significantly this year, they have warned against removing restrictions too soon, as some states have.

When asked if children and under-18s would be the most vulnerable in a potential third wave, almost two-thirds of experts or 26 to 40 said yes.

“The reason is that this is a completely virgin population in terms of vaccination, as there is currently no vaccine available for them,” said Dr. Pradeep Banandur, head of the epidemiology department at National Institute of Mental Health and Neuroscience (NIMHANS).

Experts warn the situation could get worse.

“If the children are infected in large numbers and we are not prepared, there is nothing you can do at the last minute,” said Dr Devi Shetty, cardiologist at Narayana Health and Karnataka State Government Advisor on pandemic response planning.

“It will be a whole other problem because the country has very, very few pediatric intensive care unit beds, and it will be a disaster.”

However, 14 experts said the children were not in danger.

A senior health ministry official said earlier this week that children are vulnerable and susceptible to infections, but this analysis found a less severe impact on health.

COVID-19 is a soluble problem because it was obviously easy to get a soluble vaccine. In two years India will likely develop herd immunity from the vaccine and exposure to the disease,” said Robert Gallo, director of the University of Maryland Institute. of Human Virology and International Scientific Advisor to the Global Virus Network.

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