Kerala and the northeastern states are among the regions in India where the R-value is increasing rapidly, according to an analysis by researchers at the Chennai Institute of Mathematical Sciences. Kerala has the highest number of active Covid-19 cases and continues to have an R-value of around 1.11. The R factor indicates the rate at which the Covid-19 infection is spreading in the country.
“It looks like it will stay in first place for the next two weeks. The Northeast continues to have a very bad situation with most states having an R-value greater than one,” said Sitabhra Sinha of the ‘Institute of Mathematical Sciences, PTI news agency reported.
The Union Health Ministry said on Thursday it would delegate a six-member team to Kerala for effective management of Covid-19 as the state reports an increase in daily cases.
In the northeast, only Tripura has an R-value significantly less than one, while Manipur has descended only slightly below one. Among the other states in the country, Uttarakhand has an R-value very close to one at the moment, according to the analysis.
Delhi’s R-value between June 21 and June 26 was 0.8. It fell to 0.66 between June 28 and July 6, but rose to 0.84 between July 4 and July 20. Delhi recorded 51 new cases of Covid-19 on Thursday with a positivity rate of 0.08%. The active cases in Delhi stand at 554. The daily increase in cases and active infections has remained more or less the same.
Sinha said if the number of active Covid-19 cases is constant, the R-value is one, as he explained the situation in the nation’s capital. “Even if R momentarily exceeds one, you may be able to contain it. For example, if there are one hundred active cases, you still have the opportunity to contain it before it gets completely out of control. to a few thousand and R is greater than one, then the situation is dangerous, “he added.
Pune’s R-value was 0.85 from July 11 to 13 and 0.89 from July 15 to 20. For Bangalore, the R-value for July 7-13 was 0.92. It increased slightly to 0.95 between July 13 and July 17. It fell to 0.72 from July 17 to 23.
Mumbai’s R-value was 0.96 between July 2 and July 4. It fell to 0.89 between July 6 and July 9. It fell further to 0.74 between July 22 and July 24. For Chennai, the R-value between June 29 and June 7 was 0.63. It climbed to 1.05 between July 16 and July 19. It was 0.94 between July 21 and July 24, showing signs of a decline. In the case of Calcutta, the R-value was 0.80 between July 1 and July 13, followed by 0.91 between July 12 and July 17. It fell to 0.86 between July 17 and July 24.
According to the analysis, when the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic was at its peak, the overall R-value in the country was estimated at 1.37 between March 9 and April 21. It fell to 1.18 between April 24 and May 1. then to 1.1 between April 29 and May 7. Between May 9 and 11, the R-value was estimated to be around 0.98. It fell to 0.82 between May 14 and May 30, then to 0.78 from May 15 to June 26. The R-value, however, rose to 0.88 from June 20 to July 7, and then to 0.95 from July 3 to 22, he added.
Sinha said that when the number of active Covid-19 cases remains in the range of a few hundred and the R-value is close to one, an outbreak can be controlled much more easily. “The total number of active cases in India fluctuates too much to get a reliable estimate, but the data points to a value close to one. It could tip either way in the coming days,” he said.
The analysis added that an R-value of 0.95 means that an average of 100 infected people transmits the infection to 95 other people. If the R-value is less than one, it means that the number of people newly infected is lower than the number of people infected in the previous period, which means that the incidence of the disease is decreasing.
The smaller the value of R, the faster the disease declines. Conversely, if R is greater than one, the number of infected people increases with each turn. The larger the number, the faster the rate of the spread of Covid-19 in the country, he added.