Spatially, monsoon coverage reduced significantly in the past two days and the monsoon is unlikely to revive in the next seven to 10 days.
The country will receive “normal” rains in July, between 94% and 106% of the average over a long period, but the monsoon will not resume until the second week, the Indian meteorological department said Thursday in its forecast for the month.
He also warned that moderate monsoon conditions over the next seven days are likely to impact agricultural activities such as planting and transplanting crops, scheduling irrigation, etc., and also on energy needs.
Crops sown early will require protective irrigation to keep soil moisture from evaporating. But plantings of other important crops like rice in northwest and central India may not be affected.
In July, when most monsoon rains occur normally, “below normal” (<94%) to “normal” (94% to 106%) rains are likely over most parts of northwestern Switzerland. India, parts of the southern peninsula, central, eastern and northeastern India, IMD said in its forecast.
“Normal” to “above normal” (> 105%) precipitation is likely over parts of central India and adjacent areas of Peninsular India and the Ganges plains during July.
The latest forecast from the global model indicates that the prevailing neutral conditions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and that there is an increased possibility of the development of negative dipole conditions of the Indian Ocean (IOD) over the Indian Ocean. during the period from July to September.
“While the neutral ENSO conditions do not affect the monsoon, the negative IOD conditions are not favorable to the Indian monsoon. Indeed, sea surface temperatures are higher in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, while sea temperatures are cooler near the Somali coast, which does not favor the progression of the monsoon. However, there is still a high probability of a normal monsoon over the country in July, ”said M Mohapatra, Director General of IMD.
As the sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are known to have a strong influence on the Indian monsoon, IMD is monitoring them closely, IMD said in its statement.
ENSO is a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure of the overlying atmosphere across the equatorial Pacific Ocean according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
ENSO has a major influence on weather and climate conditions such as heavy rains, floods and drought. Like ENSO, changing temperature gradients across the Indian Ocean causes changes in preferred regions of rising and falling humidity and air, called IODs according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Mohapatra said the monsoon covered most parts of the country except parts of northwest India including Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, parts of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. June 19, but the monsoon flow started to weaken from June 26. This was mainly due to strengthening westerly winds at mid-latitudes which weakened the flow of easterly monsoon winds; unfavorable location of the Madden Julian Oscillation; and the absence of any low pressure system over the northern Bay of Bengal that could bring rain.
Spatially, monsoon cover has declined significantly over the past two days and the monsoon is unlikely to resume in the next seven to ten days, Mohapatra said. “There is a chance that an area of low pressure will form over the Bay of Bengal around July 11 or 12. There is no chance that the monsoon will pick up much before that,” Mohapatra added.
“The pause phases of the monsoon occur during the monsoon. There were pause monsoon phases that lasted for 10 days. This is not a recording of a situation but also cannot be called normal, ”Mohapatra said during the briefing.
From June last week to the first week of July is the most critical time for agriculture. For southern India, most planting takes place around June 15th. Those who sow late will not be able to do this, and those who have sown crops may not germinate if there is such a large rainfall. Yield will be significantly affected and farmers will have to depend on contingency crops. They may choose short-lived crops like millet, green gram, etc., but these are also hard to find. In northwest India there is no rain so far, so only those supported by irrigation will go ahead. This is a significant setback, ”said GV Ramanjaneyulu, executive director of the Center for Sustainable Agriculture, Hyderabad.
Humidity expected to increase in northwest India
Heatwave conditions are very likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and parts of Uttar Pradesh, northern Rajasthan and northwestern Madhya Pradesh over the coming days. But it is likely to decrease in intensity and coverage due to southwest winds from the Arabian Sea.
Scientists expect southwest winds from the Arabian Sea to affect the northwestern region, including Delhi, for a week, which will help ease heatwave conditions, but humidity will increase and could lead to very uncomfortable conditions as the impact of heat will be accentuated with high humidity.
Flooding likely in the northeast
Under the influence of strong and humid winds from the southwest of the Bay of Bengal blowing towards the northeastern states and adjacent regions to the east of India, widespread and very heavy to sometimes extremely heavy (more height of 20 cm) are very likely over Bihar, West Bengal sub-Himalayas, Sikkim and northeastern states over the next five days. The continued rain is very likely to increase the influx into rivers and reservoirs originating in the Himalayas, leading to a flood-like situation in some watersheds, IMD warned.
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